Unless something revolutionary is done, people in the Metro area will be walking to work 25 years from now.
That's what the Metro Transportation Study is all about.
Still to be revealed in its entirety, the study recommends a Polo Park - Main St. subway, freeways, carrying rapid bus services, 13 new bridges and a mass of other new arteries.
It was partially released this week at a press conference and during a planning association convention.
Metro used a computer to come up with some of the recommendations.
And the think-machine says that if the present system of providing transportation of goods and services — extended and improved roadways and new bus routes is continued — exactly 67 per cent of all Metro-area intersections will be so clogged by 1991, that they'll be almost useless.
In an interview, Deputy Streets Director Harry Burns and Streets Traffic Engineer W. H. Finnbogason said a solution had been found.
But the catch:
There is no way that local municipal governments can finance its costs under existing policies and tax revenue resources.
Greater Winnipeg's scheme to overcome future traffic strangulation probably will cost about $750,000,000.
Spread over a period of 25 years, this means an annual outlay of $30,000,000 to get from point A to point B (the average distance travelled by motorists in the Metro area today) is 17.2 minutes. The average travelling time now is 24 minutes.
In 25 years, the computer says you will get there faster by walking.
"Traffic congestion will be seven times as bad as it is today," Mr. Burns said.
Manitoba's capital isn't alone in its fear of future transportation problems. Major cities across Canada are in the same fix. The mayors and reves of these centres will meet Feb. 10-12 in Toronto for their first urban transportation conference and will be seeking guidance from senior levels of government.
The Winnipeg study carried out by almost 10 persons (all Metro staff) over a period of five years, cost an estiamted $300,000. At going rates, about $1.50 per capita, the same study turned over to outside authorities would have cost $750,000.
The study that has been carried out considered five schemes for alleviating or solving traffic movement in the future:
The first two plans were rejected as being inadequate to handle future traffic. The third was set aside because it was too elaborate and costly. The fourth, according to computers, showed that while the number of people using rapid transit would double, 50 per cent of intersections in the Metro area would be jammed by vehicular traffic.
The compromise was Scheme 5.
Under this scheme, 15 subway trains would be operating in peak hours. There would be 50 seats per car. About 95 freeway buses would make connection with the subway system. Fleets of buses would continue to service municipalities with transfer points to expressways, rapid transit or directly downtown.
The computers confirmed one observation that was suspected for some time. About 10 per cent of the people in the Metro area will make no use of no matter what system is adopted. Most of these live downtown and walk, others ride bicycles and still others thumb their way.
"The short rapid transit system together with a good system of surface traffic handling under Scheme 5 gives us a good balance," Mr. Burns said.
But 25 years from now — if means are found to implement the scheme — there will still be traffic congestion at about 10 per cent of all street intersections in the Greater Winnipeg area. This is about the same situation as exists today.
Traffic on the road in 1991 will be double what it is today. There are about 150,000 car owners in the Metro area now.
Similar studies have been carried in the Ottawa-Hull area and in Calgary.
In Calgary, a proposal has been put forward for a more extensive rapid transit system than that planned for Winnipeg. The Alberta city plan will reduce traffic congestion at street intersections to 11 per cent as compared to Winnipeg's predicted 10 per cent.
The study here shows that 13 new river crossings will be needed by 1991. Their locations, Metro officials explained, cannot be made public at this time because of problems involving land acquisition that may have to take place. Location of proposed freeways and link-up of streets is also classified information. Three of the river crossings would serve the beltway system. There are presently 11 bridges, excluding three perimeter highway crossings, serving the Metro area.
"The new bridges will have to come no matter what happens," Mr. Burns said.
A "staging" program has been proposed to take into account conditions that may develop that even the computers haven't anticipated. Metro area growth patterns could conceivably change in the next 25 years. Industrial buildup could alter the pattern or residential development may change from present characteristics.
To meet these eventualities, a review of the program will be considered annually for each five years of development. The first stage — had funds been available and the study completed — would have been carried out by 1971.