During the 1990s, the price of regular unleaded gasoline in Winnipeg averaged about 60 cents per litre. Gasoline prices in Winnipeg as in the rest of Canada have risen steadily and today are more than twice the price during that bygone era.
While one can expect the price of oil and gasoline to fluctuate, providing some short-term relief, the long-term trend is nevertheless up. There will be a major impact on life in Canada given that the vast geographic space we inhabit has spawned a fuel intensive lifestyle.
This lifestyle is common to North Americans in general and is characterized by an urban pattern of dispersed suburban development knitted together by gasoline and automobiles that will be very expensive to sustain as gasoline prices rise.
Indeed, the evidence from the United States — where gasoline is now $4 a gallon — suggests that rising gasoline prices have put economic pressure on suburban commuters.
A large house on the fringes of major urban centres has become an increasingly expensive lifestyle choice. This is being reflected in housing prices. Amid the general collapse of the U.S. housing market, housing prices in the suburban fringe are generally falling faster than the older urban cores. This has certainly been the case for cities such as Atlanta, San Francisco and Minneapolis.
Canadian cities have generally lagged the American trend in housing prices but it would not be far-fetched to predict a similar trend as gasoline prices continue to soar. Taken to its extreme, such a trend might provoke visions of urban decay in reverse with core areas attracting new residents and suburbs becoming empty vistas of crime and decay.
However, there is hope. Economic historian Harold Innis once wrote that the civilization of the settler economies of North America was fundamentally the civilization of Europe.
If we wish to glimpse the shape of our future then it is again to Europe that we should look as the retail price of gasoline per litre there is well over $2. The Europeans are able to cope with smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles and public transit, which are combined with high-density cities that reduce the need to travel long distances for basic daily needs.
In other words, there is a future that is not a cause for alarm but for adaptation and the key to this future appears to be urban density.
As an example, one can look at the United Kingdom where 60 million people are packed into an area not much larger than southern Ontario and where gasoline is presently about $2.50 per litre (or about $10 a gallon). Numerous smaller cities like High Wycombe or Slough ring London and are linked by road, rail and tube networks that can be sustained because of the denser population networks. The density of urban life does not mean less green space as numerous parks and green areas dot the cities and the countryside, making even many industrial areas look like leafy park enclaves.
For Canadians, the lifestyle of the Ford F-150 country squire will soon be relegated to a select few able to pay for the gasoline needed to fuel its prodigious appetite. The rest of us shall be driving much smaller cars.
Cars will not disappear given our preference for independence when it comes to transportation choices, but they will need to adapt. Over time, Hummers and trucks alongside smart cars and small hybrids will increasingly take on the aspect of dinosaurs lumbering amongst more nimble small furry mammals.
One can expect to see many larger Canadian cities explore light-rail transit lines or even the return of electric trolleys.
Sadly enough, most Canadian cities would have been better able to cope with rising gasoline prices 50 years ago when much of the population resided within walking distance of core areas with ample shopping and services as well as an efficient system of electric trolley cars for longer distances.
Winnipeg is certainly an example of how a city has expanded to fill the space available as housing developments have begun to lap against the shores of the Perimeter Highway.
Canadian cities must begin to adapt to this new world by promoting infill and higher-density development and improving the system of public transit. Some of this will occur naturally as rising gasoline and energy prices encourage higher-density living but government could help smooth the transition by subsidizing activities that promote higher-density living.
If there is any bright side to the coming changes, it is that urban cores are suddenly about to become very attractive places to be.